FIN 4520 - FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS 

 

 

Definition:

 

A foreign exchange rate is the price of one country's currency in terms of another country's currency.

 

"Appreciation of the dollar" means that a dollar will buy more units of another currency.

 

"Depreciation of the dollar" is the opposite.

 

Relevance:

 

Exchange rates determine the price consumers pay for imports and the price producers receive for exports.

 

Factors affecting exchange rates:

 

Long run vs. short run.

Two main theories plus other factors.

 

Long run:

 

PURCHASING POWER PARITY: exchange rates are ultimately determined by relative price levels in the two countries, through the mechanism of market equilibrium.

 

Other factors: tariffs and quotas; demand for imports and exports; productivity.

 

Short run:

 

INTEREST PARITY: in market equilibrium, expected returns on domestic deposits = expected returns on foreign deposits.

 

Note: expected return on $deposits in terms of foreign currency = interest rate on $deposits + expected appreciation of the $.

 

Predictions:

 

Exchange rates move in the same direction as real interest rates.

 

An increase in a country's money supply will cause its currency to depreciate in the short run but not in the long run.