FIN 4520 - FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS
Definition:
A foreign exchange rate is the price of one country's currency in terms of another country's currency.
"Appreciation of the dollar" means that a dollar will buy more units of another currency.
"Depreciation of the dollar" is the opposite.
Relevance:
Exchange rates determine the price consumers pay for imports and the price producers receive for exports.
Factors affecting exchange rates:
Long run vs. short run.
Two main theories plus other factors.
Long run:
PURCHASING POWER PARITY: exchange rates are ultimately determined by relative price levels in the two countries, through the mechanism of market equilibrium.
Other factors: tariffs and quotas; demand for imports and exports; productivity.
Short run:
INTEREST PARITY: in market equilibrium, expected returns on domestic deposits = expected returns on foreign deposits.
Note: expected return on $deposits in terms of foreign currency = interest rate on $deposits + expected appreciation of the $.
Predictions:
Exchange rates move in the same direction as real interest rates.
An increase in a country's money supply will cause its currency to depreciate in the short run but not in the long run.